Weather Overview in Morocco During November
Consequently, we have implemented the Study and forecast Maroc software, which calculates equations of state estimates of rainfall and temperature at various levels of the atmosphere, according to the method of qr by vertical sounds, the Air Force Study and Forecast Center data for a whole month. In addition, explanations of the physics of precipitation and the thermodynamics of the Cb extend these predictions. Since 1998, 110 monthly tests have been calculated, including 20 in the month of November. The Moroccan Météo has validated these forecasts. We will report on both these tests and the explanations given. We will use two cases of special forecasts, concerning tropical maritime or continental advection, for two air masses heavily loaded with rain.
This article is the second in which we present a tool for predictive climatology adapted to the modus operandi of a meteorological specialty service. Our aim is to extend and clarify the predictions. The tool, called “Modictions,” and the corresponding predictive climatology have already been tested by state-of-the-art international numerical codes. This second article is devoted to Morocco. It will appear subsequently, given their frequency over the territory. These climatological modictions calculate the expected departure from monthly mean numerical model predictability and radiate climatological equations of state, meteorological or oceanographic primer information.
Precipitation during November is one of the most crucial months heavily impacting agriculture and watering conditions. In Morocco, which is subject to variable influences, the behavior of monthly rainfall distribution is chaotic, with large amplitudes for next months. Thus, calculating the anomalous rainfall or temperature forecast departure is essential throughout this country.
2. Geographical Context
2.1. Location and Climate Zones
Located in North Africa, Morocco occupies an area of nearly 446,550 km2. It is bounded to the north by the Strait of Gibraltar; to the east and southeast by Algeria; to the southwest by the Atlantic Ocean, and to the west by the Atlantic Ocean next to Western Sahara, which is a territory also claimed by Morocco. The climate is Mediterranean along the coastline, semi-arid to the interior, and mountain in the Rif and Atlas ranges. Morocco has two climate zones, including the Mediterranean zone, which covers the northern part of Morocco, and the continental zone to the south. The Mediterranean climate zone is characterized by cool and rainy winters and hot and dry summers. The continental climate zone is characterized by a dry and cold winter with hot and dry summers. It also often experiences sudden and heavy rain from October to March. Its altitude in the southern interior mostly exceeds 1000 m, and the average temperature in January frequently falls below 0°C.
2.2. Topographical Features
The topographical features of Morocco are characterized by mountains, plateaus, and plains. The Atlas mountain range has an east-west orientation through the center of the country, and its average height is above 2000 m. The western area is mainly the Anti-Atlas Mountains and the Haouz plain, while the eastern area is the Middle Atlas Mountains and the Saiss plain. The eastern area mostly has a continental climate, so it features less vegetation coverage compared to the northern coastal area, with only some grasslands and some shrubs; the higher areas feature forests of chestnuts, beech, and fir. The plains are fertile and form the country’s main agricultural area with crops of grains, fruits, and vegetables. The northern area, where the Rif Mountains are located, has high and steep mountains that normally have a Mediterranean climate, while forests cover the slope of the mountains. There are several inland valleys, producing a rich variety of fruit and vegetables that supply the towns in the northern area.
2.1. Location and Climate Zones
Morocco is located in North Africa. It extends over a surface area of approximately 446,500 square kilometers, which represents 3.72% of Arab land and 1.5% of the land area of Africa. It occupies a position on the northwest tip of Africa and opens wide towards the Atlantic Ocean. This a favorable maritime position, which plays an essential climatic role, although Morocco is not protected from the rigors of the Mediterranean climate. It shares its only land border with the 300-kilometer enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla, which belong to Spain. Morocco, which is a very mountainous country, has five geographic regions characterized by a climate that varies from the north to the south and from the interior to the coast: The Rif mountains of the north, the Middle and the High Atlas, with the highest point of the kingdom, Mount Toubkal, the Saharan Atlas, the Anti-Atlas, the plains and the coastal areas.
The climate is Mediterranean in the north, with mild, rainy winters and hot, dry summers sticking to the coast. The interior is modified, with large temperature gaps between day and night in summer and winter. It is a semi-desert Saharan climate in the south, with very low precipitation and high heat differences between day and night. It is often noted that it snows on the height of the Atlas in June and that it is necessary to protect oneself from the heat of the Sahara in November. In autumn, the cool but pleasant blue sky lends itself to outdoor celebrations thanks to the low humidity rate. The sightseeing tours in the south and the desert of the east are from mid-September to the end of October.
2.2. Topographical Features
Due to the geomorphological structure of Morocco, the influence of altitude on climate is felt very strongly. The general relief includes mountain ranges, plains and a long coastline. Thus, this kingdom is distinguished by the existence of great morphological inequalities: low shores along the coast of the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, the mountain chain of the Rif in the northeast part and the Atlas Mountains in the centre of the country which exceed 4000 m altitude, and the southern part formed by plains and depressions such as the Draa, Ziz valleys and the Sahara desert where the altitude is more than 500 m below sea level. The high Atlas chain begins at the level of the high plains of Haouz and ends to the south at the end of the Saharan Atlas in a low mountainous area and the Saharan depressions. These solitudes are prolonged by the depths of the Sahara at the level of the Sudanese erosional pediment, part of the desert climatic region of the river. From the above elements, we understand that there are two real reliefs whose climate and temperature distribution can be supplied and presented in the maps. The first is the Altas chain where the winds arrive loaded with humidity from the Atlantic Ocean and rest there because their penetration is practically impossible, and the second is the south Moroccan region characterized by a clear-cut desert climate between the southern slopes of the Atlas, the Anti-Atlas and the Saharan pediment which separates it geographically from the automatic Saharan depressions.
3. November Weather Patterns in Morocco
In addition to being one of the coolest months of the year, November in Morocco is also the one during which the national weather increasingly turns wet. Depending on the origin of the air mass which affects Morocco in November, this month is characterized by two different types of weather patterns. When the air mass is tropical maritime in origin, Atlantic Moroccan coastal areas are often subject to cool, cloudy, damp conditions with rain showers. In the northwestern interior, deteriorating sunny weather with milder daytime temperatures and cool nights often precede the arrival of the wet conditions, especially when the air mass is laden with moisture. The western part of the country usually receives larger amounts of precipitation as a result of orographic effects than the eastern part. When the incoming air mass is North Atlantic polar maritime in origin, weather in Morocco is drier, sunnier and colder.
However, even when the air mass is North Atlantic polar maritime, the rest of the country is usually affected, at least on a transient basis, by the cool, cloudy, damp conditions caused by an incoming tropical maritime air mass. In this case, persistent sunny warm weather usually prevails in Morocco, with the exception of the Atlantic Moroccan coastal areas, particularly in the western regions where conditions are often damp, cloudy and cool. These areas are very often shrouded in a thick blanket of fog, with visibility often falling to below 200 meters. The eastern parts of the country, as well as the mid and high altitude inland mountainous areas also usually remain sunny and relatively warm, although they can occasionally experience rather cold nighttime temperatures.
3.1. Temperature Trends
During the month of November, most traditional models forecast a slight decrease in maximum temperatures, a decrease in the number of extremely hot days, and notably high minimum temperatures, particularly on the southern Atlantic coast. The exceptions to this general trend are southern Morocco, and especially the interior of southern Morocco, where forecasts suggest a slight warming for both minimum and maximum temperatures. In Morocco, there is little climatic knowledge about the month of November, even less so if you consider the variety of sites and periods of the series of climatic data available. The reasons for this ignorance lie firstly in the short duration of the climatological series and also in the low density of the climatological network, which is still very unevenly distributed. November occupies a singular place in the annual climatic cycle of the different localities of Morocco. The different distribution of temperature and precipitation in the regional clines of the interior and southern ridges of the Atlas mountains is apparent; areas of stratified temperatures such as the northern coasts contrast with other regions such as the southern Atlantic coast. The great basin of the Moroccan Great South presents a marked continentalism both in relation to the intensity of insolation and the spatial distribution of temperature. Even the pass crossing winter climate from one hemisphere to another presents some singularities in its climatological indices.
3.2. Precipitation Levels
November in Morocco signifies the onset of winter, which is typically marked by fluctuating precipitation throughout the month. The average overall precipitation in November is approximately 50.6 mm. Along the Mediterranean coast, average precipitation increases along with its frequency and a maximum occurs in mid-November. In the rest of the country, with the exception of the south and southeast coast, average precipitation decreases with latitude until it reaches its lowest level in the Tangier region. Farther inland, east of Rabat, precipitation is lowest. The province of Agadir has a low average and frequency of precipitation during November. September and October are characterized by heavy rainstorms, which discharge a great amount of water. These rainstorms, however, tend to be relatively infrequent in November. In addition to the decrease in the amount and frequency of precipitation, the air mass is dry throughout all of Morocco in November, especially over the Atlas Mountains.
As November unfolds in Morocco, the frequency and overall amount of precipitation typically increase. In the southern and southeastern regions, rainfall is generally above average, with coastal areas experiencing particularly high levels of precipitation. Moving away from the coast, the amount of rainfall in November sharply decreases, and snowfall may occasionally occur at altitudes exceeding 2000 meters. This trend of declining precipitation from the coastline inland and towards the southeast is a distinctive feature of Morocco’s winter weather. During November, prevailing winds predominantly originate from the west and northwest. Initially, these western winds bring relatively moist air; however, they later shift to northwest winds that carry less humidity.
3.3. Wind Patterns
The Moroccan weather feature to be considered here is the wind. It can locally affect the temperature, lack of precipitation, and the onset and intensity of hazes and dust devil activity. In a country that has places in both the Tropical and Polar climate zones, and where difference in altitude can reach 4300 m, it is to be expected that wind in Morocco could range in speed from very little indeed to near-cyclonic in intensity. This is not the case. It is possible for the scientist, having adequately large amounts of data available, to study both the directional properties and the wind speed systems.
At the latitudes of Morocco, the sea and the location of the land relative to it tend to restrain wind speeds in the near-ground atmosphere. However, in the interior of the land mass, pressure gradients imposed by any non-uniform air temperature distribution can result in a corresponding increase in wind speed. The same is true in the case of the Mediterranean Sea.
Looking at the periods of Morocco winds shows that, although in coastal regions winds are generally more intense in summer than in winter, this is not the case for the interior of the country, where winds are more intense in winter. In fact, winds are much weaker during summer in the interior than they are flying up towards the coast.
The wind regimes in Morocco can be characterized as being strong seasonally: generally it increases from February to March; from the end of the summer to the middle of autumn, except on the Mediterranean coast and the Atlantic to the north, it decreases, but it still remains important.
4. Regional November Weather Morocco Variations
Weather factors affecting Morocco November weather and climate include: location adjacent to the Atlantic Ocean, Mediterranean Sea, and North Africa desert; elevation influences including the Atlas Mountain role as a rain shadow barrier; prevailing wind patterns; and the typical North Africa winter-like rain season. Because of these differing factors, distinct varieties of November weather and climate exist in Morocco’s coastal areas, mountain ranges and elevated plateaus, and hot dry lowland valleys and desert fringes. Do you want warm, cold, wet, or dry weather? Or variations within districts? November weather in Morocco has it all! Besides differentiation within regions, considerable variation also occurs during the month and between years. Coastal areas are expected to be cool and wet, lowland valleys hot and dry, the mountains cold with occasional snow, and the plateaus cool and dry. Weather extremes could include hot and dry on the same day in the valleys and snow in the mountains. Weather and climate in coastal areas are influenced by maritime effects, and in the lowlands, plateaus, and mountains, distance from the ocean. November marks transition from the warm dry season to the cool wet season across Morocco. By the end of the month, cloudy, cool, and damp conditions are typical, especially in the northern coastal areas, with diminished sunshine and no persistent dry days. Average temperatures range from 16C to 8C in the north, the same as October, and base on data, 17C to 8C in the south, about 1C cooler than October in most areas. Weather in coastal areas can and does vary considerably. For example, average highs range from 19-20C in the north to about 24C in the south, with usually no days above 27C but occasionally some in the north and several in the south.
4.1. Coastal Areas
Abstract. This section focuses on the weather in Morocco during November. From Agadir to Laayoune and the ports of El Jadida, Safi, and Therouanne, the conditions in the tropical oceanic and Mediterranean climate zones are highlighted. The average sea temperature in November hovers around 21–22°C, while the dryness index shows that humid air masses bring in the moisture required for rainfall, which frequently follows periods of overcast skies. Rainfall manifests across the region, displaying characteristics of prolonged weather patterns.
4.1. Coastal Areas
November weather over Morocco’s Atlantic coast zone is associated with Equatorial and Tropical fronts and Eastern subtropical high and Western surface troughs. The major portion of atmospheric blocking is associated with Eastern detraining surface high and Western quittrenta. Continuous rains, torrential rains on separate days, occur in November in Tangier, Rabat, El Jadida. Close to the continent, shallow seas with salinities of 25–36.8 g/dm3 neutralize Atlantic winds. Turbulent and friction-less evaporation occurs from the low unvegetated and uninhabited areas.
Visible sunshine is a maximum of 5 hours from 0800 to 2000 – 0800 to 1900 GMT. From Agadir and Laayoune to the ports of El Jadida, Safi, and Therouanne near the land on some days, warming is up to 40-43oC. From El Jadida in the longest portion of sunny days, cooling is up to 20–23oC. Over the Atlantic coast, from the ports of Agadir and Laayouine to the sandy embankments of El Jadida and Saïdia, winter is relatively short. The average maritime temperature in November is above 21–22oC and the dryness index indicates that humid air masses transport the moisture necessary for rains, which often occur after each single day of weather overcast. Rainfall appears at the surface above the region, with relatively long-term attributes.
4.2. Inland Regions
As we progress into November, the atmosphere over the interior regions of Morocco begins to cool considerably more than along the northern coastal regions. Overnight, confident radiational cooling conditions prevail leading to lowest night-time air temperature values of the year. Within the pre-Saharan parts of Morocco, we begin to see on some nights the low temperature drop to slight values below zero, especially in the Ouarzazate region at the head of the Draa Valley or eastwards to Errachidia, towards the south-east. The day-time maximum temperatures in November, however, are still somewhat variable. These highest values may rise to 25–26 °C in the more northerly part of the interior, changing to 27–28 °C further south. The air temperature in most of Morocco then remains below the corresponding monthly values. During the latter fortnight of November, there usually follows a considerable drop in the daily maximum temperatures in the Saharan region, and certain days may be altogether cooler with maximum values only slightly above 20 °C or so, as during the second half of October.
4.3. Mountainous Areas
In November, and during the rainy season in particular, precipitation increases in the Atlas areas. Rainy days are frequent, and the rain regime has its winter maxima. But it does not appear to be so abundant in the South Saharan Atlas, where it decreases considerably. Pauses appear in the rainy season in December and in the beginning of February. After the cold period of winter rains, abundant to heavy precipitation leads very often to the filling of the rivers and torrents, aggravating their violent regime and producing floods.
The distribution of temperatures in the middle and over Middle Atlas knows maximum frequency in the periods 0 to + 1 °C and + 4 to + 5 °C. Days and nights are generally cold. Only locally in the deep valleys some summer-like days or warm nights can be expected. The very cold and severe weather is observed periodically under conditions of domination of cold air masses flowing from the sea after periods of minimum temperatures in mountain regions. In these valleys of the Anti Atlas the precipitation due to advection from the sea is lower than in the Northern Atlas. Sunny days and systems of dry alternate with the humid transport along the warm currents near the coast. The internal regions are therefore desert, and temperate winter weather separates from the hot, summer-like weather of the moist coast. The deficit of the summer negative precipitation then leads at the end of the summer to desert conditions.
5. Impact of Weather on Daily Life
The weather in November in Morocco significantly impacts the daily lives of many Moroccans, particularly those in rural areas who rely heavily on agriculture. The agricultural calendar is tightly linked to variations in precipitation and temperature, which influence planting and harvesting schedules. While crop production is the most crucial aspect affected by these weather patterns, other agricultural activities are also reliant on specific climatic conditions. For instance, the cultivation of fruit trees and sheep farming, especially prevalent in regions like the Middle Atlas, requires certain temperatures and amounts of rainfall during particular times of the year. Unfortunately, these weather needs are not consistently met across the country, yet they greatly shape Morocco’s agricultural landscape. Additionally, the weather in November has implications for tourists, especially those attending cultural events known as “fêtes.” Outdoor activities are closely tied to weather conditions; for those interested in skiing, access to slopes in areas like the “Moroccan Colorado” hinges on temperature and snowfall. Unfavorable weather can present challenges not only for summer and winter tourism but also for spring and autumn visitors, as these seasons often experience temperatures and conditions that may deter tourism, despite the availability of significant cultural celebrations.
5.1. Agricultural Practices
The agriculture of Morocco is conducted according to a system of rain and/or irrigation. This second possibility is realized only in a semi-desertic zone of the southeast, thanks to a dam built on the Draa Valley, and concerns a small area of cultivation. The rest of the agricultural area, which is occupied especially by cereals and by the aromatic vegetable gardens in the North, takes advantage of the winter rains. The average annual precipitation varies from 1000–1200 mm in the North through 300–400 mm in the East and the South. However, the precipitation is not always well distributed over the year, presenting a deficit or even presenting long periods without rains; this outlines the courses of a drought which is quite regular in rhythm and accounts for long episodes of partial plant repression, causing the low average productive levels of Moroccan agriculture, and is responsible for the repeated famines which rage in the country.
November weather in Morocco greatly influences agricultural practices, primarily due to its position in the rainy season. Frequent droughts during this time can severely impact agricultural output, leading to declines in average annual GDP and reducing the agricultural sector’s contribution to foreign trade. Moreover, winter frosts pose risks to hardier crops such as olives and strawberries, impacting the yields of more delicate fruits like pears, peaches, and apricots, which are particularly vulnerable to late frosts. Additionally, November can bring unexpected summer-like thunderstorms, potentially leading to harvest losses and redirecting agricultural resources towards managing large water-saturated earth hollows formed in river deltas. Furthermore, the distinct diversity found in vegetable gardens, largely supported by effective use of well-exposed areas where irregular irrigation is feasible, is significantly influenced by humidity-laden winds from the Atlantic along the coastal regions.
5.2. Tourism Activities
Tourism plays an essential part in the Moroccan economy. Several areas in Morocco are world-renown tourist destinations due to their history and cultural richness. For centuries, Morocco’s diverse landscapes and climates have drawn visitors from all over the world. These have created and inspired unique artistic sensibilities and legacies that can be discerned in Morocco’s arts and crafts, architecture, cuisine, music, and lifestyle. By adventuring deeper into the hinterlands, tourists can meet Berber tribes that preserve and adopt ancestral customs and crafts, but there is also a large variety of delightful coastal settlements, many with architecture reflecting the Portuguese and/or Spanish legacy.
In early November, tourist activity in Moroccan cities like Marrakesh, Tangier, and Fes begins to stabilize. Visitors continue to enjoy wandering through the vibrant markets and narrow backstreets, where stunning architectural marvels can be admired, all while taking in the mild and pleasant weather. During this time, locals and merchants adapt to the steady influx of tourists, who are now facing gradually increasing hotel occupancy rates. The bustling market scene remains a significant draw; many travelers flock to the souks of the medina to purchase ceramics, rugs, leather items, spices, and various other goods, captivated by the exotic scents and vivid colors that fill the air.
Accommodation options in November in Morocco are quite restricted, as numerous lodges and guesthouses shut down for renovations during this period. The ones that remain open often feel empty and desolate. Locations that typically face accommodation shortages, including the northern coastal towns and the Sahara dunes of Merzouga, become nearly vacated by the end of the month. Only the far south and the far north see a minor influx of tourists, primarily those interested in windsurfing.
5.3. Cultural Events
Given its historical weight and cultural diversity, November is an active period for Moroccan festivals, especially in the regions that have a tourist potential. The music festival at the foot of the High Atlas has been confirmed for several years, with an even more impressive and fascinating series of events due to the presence of large foreign or national groups. The month of November is also one of the best times to discover the Moroccan Sahara. The days are sunny, the nights are chilly and the tourists are fewer in number. There are only a few more tourists than the rest of the year, except during the period of the Aïd el-Mouloud when the youths of the Shadli and Jazuli brotherhoods enliven southern Morocco.
More and more, the Moroccan desert has become a desired destination: Paradise for walkers and groups of tourists in search of an original and festive atmosphere. Punctuated with sometimes heavy and inappropriate packages imposed by a bureaucratized tourism, the month of November is nevertheless inscribed in the program of the local tourism offices. It hosts the many Saharan competitions that are being born little by little at the style of a cute “Sahara Marathon”. On the program, camel or dromedary races with a cultural approach and a “Tourism and Mémoire” task that is more and more followed. This is the case of the festival of the dates at Erfoud and its surroundings in southern Morocco. Like it or not, Moroccan-well–being “students” charged for a levy are ready at the bottom of the Hotel Soudan. In this month of November, Moroccans certainly resume travelling through their country in a keepsake atmosphere with ornate hotels.
6. Climate Change Considerations
The data indicate a consistent long-term increase in air temperature in Morocco, with a slope of about +0.67°C/century for annual time series. It reflects positive trends in all seasons but the winter season, which is characterized by a weak decreasing trend. During the November month, which concerns our study, the number of consecutive days with temperatures above the value of 30°C is increasing, when the number of consecutive days below the threshold of 0°C is slightly decreasing. Agricultural activities are known to be strongly related to climate. Seasonal rainfall distribution affects crops’ agriculture, as each seasonal rainfall has a direct effect on dry land crops. The period of winter rainfall during the months of December-January-February has a positive impact on cereal yield, while very early rains (mainly before the season of planting cereals) have a negative effect. For the spring, there is a strong correlation between total rain from March to May and the production of sugar beets, barley, and corn. A higher level of spring rainfall positively affects the production of sugar start, corn, legume, and vegetable productions. Moreover, it impacts negatively the production of wine grapes and barley. Indeed, climate changes not only pollute the environment, with its impacts on economic and social economy but also have countless effects on biodiversity, affecting the lives of many species from plants to animals.
In Morocco, November typically brings mild temperatures and a mix of sunny and rainy days. The average daytime temperatures range from 15°C to 22°C, providing a comfortable climate for outdoor activities. Nights can be cooler, dropping to around 8°C to 12°C, particularly in mountainous regions. Rainfall begins to increase during this month, especially in the northern areas, leading to lush vegetation and vibrant landscapes. These weather conditions can impact local ecosystems, influencing the distribution and behavior of both native species and migratory birds that visit during this time. The changing weather patterns may also affect agricultural practices, as farmers adapt to the fluctuating conditions. Overall, November in Morocco presents a unique blend of pleasant weather and ecological dynamics that highlight the region’s natural beauty.
6.1. Long-term Trends
The most relevant long-term climatic change trend in Morocco, which exerts a significant impact on recent years’ long-term averages, is the gradual increase in temperature without any sign of a decrease. The recent increase at the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century is projected to persist in the future. At the country scale, the yearly temperature is estimated to have increased by about 0.77 ± 0.19 °C during the second half of the 20th century, almost 1 °C between 1961 and 2000, and 1.4 °C since the 1930s. Model scenarios indicate an increase of up to +3 °C by 2055.
From 1920, there is a statistically significant shift toward warmer winters (+1.6 °C) evident since the late 1960s. The few models capable of simulating seasonal precipitation trends indicate that it has decreased between 1951–2000 for the entire winter season and local rainy months of November and March, particularly in the Atlantic coast region and mid-east highlands. Precipitation is projected to further decrease in the future along the entire winter season and local months. Thus, model scenarios suggest decreases of -5 to -10% by 2050 in these regions. Based on calculations since the early 1960s, inter-decadal variability indicates an approximation of -7% in January-March and -3% in December-February. Additionally, January is the month with the highest recent decrease (between months), which has seen a gradual and considerable decrease, estimated at about -20 to -40% for future winters.
6.2. Impact on Local Ecosystems
In November, the weather in Morocco begins to shift as the country transitions from the heat of summer to the cooler, more temperate conditions of late autumn. This time of year presents a relatively mild climate, beneficial for many crops that thrive in cooler weather. Unlike the harsher summer months, November offers adequate conditions for crops such as olives, which benefit from a period of dormancy during the winter. However, precise local weather information is crucial for understanding the short to medium-term effects on local ecosystems. The interactions within these ecosystems can be intricate, affecting both physical and biological processes. Historical data can reveal trends in pollen production, growth phases, and crop yields, alongside the identification of heat waves. By employing advanced remote sensing technologies that provide detailed spatial and temporal data, local physical processes can be more accurately integrated into these models. Notably, various combustion processes have been recognized as contributing factors to historical air pollution events and subsequent health concerns in the region during this transitional month.
The problem that arises is how to establish a reliable cause-effect relationship, particularly at the regional scale, since not only meteorological factors affect these local ecosystems, but also many others, anthropogenic for example. The need for close monitoring of the physical world, as well as feedback from observed phenomena to modeled scenarios, is thus imperative. In this work, we have attempted to provide local atmospheric conditions at fine time intervals for short periods of time, and modified only by climate change, in order to allow for the identification of local heat waves. A case study could also lead to similar experiments being attempted in other nearby countries for which the weather conditions are similar.
7. Weather Forecasting Techniques
In November in Morocco, innovative forecasting methods play a vital role in weather predictions across different temporal and spatial dimensions. The scales of time and space vary between short- and medium-term forecasts compared to long-term climate predictions. The techniques employed for creating these forecasts differ according to their time frame. Certain tools are designed to analyze historical weather patterns, while others are geared towards anticipating immediate weather changes or long-term climate trends. Reanalysis studies are conducted to gain insight into past weather phenomena, providing a foundation for understanding the current climate context in Morocco during this month.
Considerable development has occurred over the last three decades in developing observational and modelling techniques for short- and medium-range forecasting. The very basis of weather prediction is the availability of observations of atmospheric parameters and the correct representation of physical processes in the atmosphere and the ocean in the models. Data assimilation is an important component in the prediction technique. The advent of Doppler radar, satellite observations, and automatic weather stations has contributed significantly toward short- and medium-term forecasting. Developments in numerical weather prediction using high-resolution modelling have also contributed significantly for this time scale forecast. The advent of satellite observations, Doppler radar and automated observing network such as Automatic Weather Stations have contributed significantly toward improved short- and medium-range forecasting. The use of numerical weather prediction employing high-resolution models has revolutionized short-range forecasting in the last decade.
Improved understanding of the existing forecasting techniques such as the use of laminar inflow in conjunction with the member models have contributed toward better prediction of the synoptic features of monsoon depression. Thus, in the present day, weather prediction is achieved by integrating the information from satellite-derived products, radar observations and numerical weather prediction model output. The onset and withdrawal of monsoon and frequency modulation of monsoon active/break spells are some aspects of monsoon forecasting for which.
7.1. Meteorological Tools
Weather forecasting is the science of predicting the state of the atmosphere at a specific time in the future. Weather forecasts are produced through the application of mathematics, physics, and computer science in conjunction with meteorological and other geophysical data. These forecasts are produced through the solution of complex systems of partial differential equations. However, as we will see below, humans have used folklore, observation, and experience from the past to produce diets of what the weather will be in the near future. In this Chapter, we will provide a brief overview of the tools used to produce forecasts. Later in Chapter 8, we will review the means that are used for the collection of weather data.
The meteorological tools used in the production of weather forecast can be grouped into two main areas: the data assimilation models and the numerical weather prediction models. One of the best-known forecasts is that of the numerical weather prediction model. Numerical weather prediction models use discretized versions of the governing equations to project the future state of the atmosphere based on its state at the time of execution. These models may be deterministic/single value, meaning that one value for each grid box is computed for each quantity or probabilistic/ensemble models, where multiple realizations for the atmosphere state are generated. There are now also models based on artificial intelligence that, rather than using the physical equations as the basis for the models, utilize computed past data to make predictions. These models have proven to be very effective in limited domain predictions and in conjunction with traditional models over the entire globe.
7.2. Data Collection Methods
In November in Morocco, daily data on temperature and precipitation were collected over a span of fifteen years from eleven selected meteorological stations. These stations, which represent the diverse geography of the country, boast extensive records with minimal gaps in data, with the exception of December 2010 at one site and February 2009 at another. A thorough validation of the weather data was carried out. The stations vary in elevation, situated at sea level or between 760 and 2610 meters above sea level. The average distance between the stations is roughly 168 kilometers at sea level and 131 kilometers at higher altitudes. To ensure accuracy, the daily data, which is transmitted automatically, was scrutinized for any discrepancies or implausible figures. Although the data’s structure and presentation may lack reliability, several techniques for amending records and verifying climatological information have demonstrated their effectiveness.
The correction methods used allow for time series based on the comparison of adjacent stations: calculation of the mean and median, risk factors and a coefficient. Whenever a datum is suspected to be erroneous, comparison with expected values is made on the basis of the values measured at other neighboring stations. The odds factor is one of the most frequently used indicators to detect the presence of errors in climatic data. These factors are formed from the climatic data measured at two adjacent stations over a reference period of acceptable reliability. Correction methods using mean and median, or adjusted relative time factors that filter months or season triggers, are commonly used methods.
8. Case Studies
Although several studies have been performed to analyze Morocco’s climate throughout the year, few studies published climate overviews, and none have performed a summary of weather events throughout Morocco in November. We take advantage of this opportunity to describe the weather events that marked this month in order to better understand Morocco’s weather in November, as it is the month usually when first precipitation in quantity, although there is also the month with the flood wave and also the snow end of the Atlas. In this first study we use synoptic data, precipitation measurements and satellite data. We also report the synoptic situation on Morocco and on day of some flood events in Ouarzazate, Al Haouz and Bouregreg rivers and on the snow cover in the Atlas.
During the recent years long satellite analyses have been produced. They allowed to publish snow cover observations over the Morocco Atlas during November in order to localize in time the snow fall. Coupling these results with synoptically based meteorological statistical analysis showed important linkages between the Atlantic Cyclones and those of the Mediterranean, and also linkages with those forming in the Gulf of Genoa but also on the north USA coast. However, to better understand the countries’ climatology and especially possible flooding or snow risks in November, it is important to present a Morocco in November weather survey. In this study, we present different meteorological parameters such as temperature, the precipitation, the wind and the synoptic situation all along November of two successive years and also the case of few particular days.
8.1. Historical Weather Events
The main objective of this contribution is to study, on a historical basis, the weather in Morocco during November, based on some selected meteorological observations covering the 20th century. The monthly means of 2m temperature and daily precipitation are notably analyzed to distinguish some notable events. Independent work on December and January reveals that these monthly means can be regarded as precursor indicators for the following months and that climatologically favorable December and January months can be found on the basis of November.
November is the precursor month for the cold and relatively dry winter season in Morocco that reaches its maximum between December and March. During November, mild weather prevails in most of the Moroccan territory, with some exceptions concerning the 2m temperature over a few time series located in the Middle Atlas. This month is also characterized by an increasing precipitation which allows an increase of the river discharges and therefore a judicial exploitation of the hydraulic resources. In this framework, we present hereafter a brief climatological analysis of the weather in Morocco during this month, focusing on the 20th century. Our analysis is based on historical meteorological observations, namely the monthly mean of temperature at 2m and daily precipitation that are compared for different locations through the use of a few selected time series. In the following sections, we successively describe and present the observational data and some notable November climatological characteristics before we conclude by outlining the possible socio-economic impacts of our results.
8.2. Comparative Analysis with Other Months
Having noted the historical weather conditions encountered in Morocco during November, we now turn our attention to how they compare with those of the preceding and subsequent months, as well as the months bordering these months. Given the increase in duration and intensity of contaminated dust storms already evident during October which generally persists or increases into January, we would expect enhanced November temperature and humidity differences which is clearly evident from their comparative analysis.
Overall weather conditions during November are clearly intermediate with October/December showing the expected temperature/humidity pattern considering the fact that filtered November temperature generally would normally be expected to show decreasing maximum temperature with the corresponding increase in minimum temperature and increase relative humidity differences that one might expect from the onset of the winter season. These signals are clearly apparent for both the winter and summer months representing the compared locations. Hence, overall, November conditions appear to be no different than what one might expect as a transition month between summer and winter.
